The hardest lease in a multi-unit rollout is almost always the first one. That was true for San Fernando Coffee, a concept that has grown to 16 locations since 2024 — but only after convincing a single landlord to take a chance on the first site.
The Challenge: Winning a First Restaurant Lease With No Track Record
When San Fernando Coffee was looking to open its first location, there was no track record to point to. No landlord wants to be the test case for a concept that hasn’t proven itself yet, and that hesitation is one of the most common obstacles facing emerging restaurant and retail brands trying to get their first foothold in a market.
The Strategy: Making the Landlord’s Case Before There’s a Portfolio
Representing the tenant in this expansion, my job was to make the case for that first landlord directly — not by pointing to past locations that didn’t yet exist, but by making the strongest possible argument for why this specific site, and this specific concept, made sense in that specific market.
That meant going beyond a standard leasing pitch and building real conviction with ownership that the concept would perform, and that a longer-term relationship with this tenant across future locations was worth the initial risk.
The Outcome: 16 Coffee Shop Locations Since 2024
The landlord took the leap on the first San Fernando Coffee location. From there, the brand’s own performance did the rest of the work: as the first site succeeded, subsequent landlords had an actual track record to evaluate rather than a pitch deck. Sixteen locations later, the dynamic has fully reversed — as I’ve put it, “everyone wants them now.”
That reversal is the clearest sign the initial bet paid off. What started as a single leasing conversation with one skeptical landlord turned into a multi-year, multi-location relationship that has become one of the more active franchise expansion stories in the local restaurant and retail space.
Why It Matters for Landlords and Emerging Restaurant Brands
This kind of rollout illustrates something important for both landlords and emerging brands: the first lease in any expansion story is disproportionately hard, and disproportionately important. Landlords evaluating an unproven concept are taking on real risk, and tenants trying to scale need a broker who can make the case for them before there’s a portfolio to point to.
The category fundamentals support that kind of bet. The U.S. now has more than 40,000 coffee shops — about 7% above pre-pandemic levels — with coffee chain sales recently growing 8% year-over-year to roughly $49.5 billion, according to industry data compiled by Toast. And the National Restaurant Association projects total restaurant and foodservice sales to reach $1.55 trillion in 2026, with consumer demand holding up despite cost pressures. Well-run coffee concepts remain one of the more resilient tenant categories a landlord can sign.
For property owners in the San Fernando Valley and greater Los Angeles market, it’s worth remembering that some of the strongest long-term tenant relationships start with a single leap of faith on a concept that hasn’t yet proven itself — but has the fundamentals to do so.
Frequently Asked Questions
How can a new restaurant concept convince a landlord without a track record?
By replacing history with evidence: a site-specific case for why the concept fits that trade area, credible operators and financials, and a broker who can vouch for the tenant and frame the upside of a multi-location relationship rather than a single one-off lease.
Is the coffee shop category still a good tenant bet in 2026?
The data says yes. U.S. coffee shop counts have surpassed 40,000 locations and chain sales have been growing at roughly 8% year-over-year — one of the steadier growth categories in food and beverage retail (Toast, 2026).
What does a tenant representation broker do for an expanding brand?
A tenant rep identifies sites, negotiates lease terms, and — critically for emerging brands — makes the credibility case to landlords, so the first deal gets done and each subsequent deal gets easier.
Working With a Growing Brand — or Looking to Become One?
Whether you’re a landlord evaluating a new concept for your property, or an operator trying to scale past your first location, the leasing conversation looks different depending on which side of that gap you’re on. Stefan Siegel has represented both landlords and expanding restaurant and retail tenants for more than 28 years, including current expansion assignments for brands like Golden Corral, Crab N Spice, Baskin-Robbins, and Poke House.
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Sources & Further Reading
- Coffee Shop Industry Trends and Statistics for 2026 — Toast — 40,000+ U.S. coffee shops, ~$49.5B in chain sales growing 8% year-over-year, and 62% of Americans drinking coffee daily.
- 2026 State of the Restaurant Industry — National Restaurant Association — $1.55 trillion in projected 2026 restaurant and foodservice sales; 15.8 million industry jobs.
- Los Angeles Retail Market Report, Q2 2026 — Kidder Mathews — Current LA retail vacancy (5.6%) and asking rents ($2.76/SF/month), including San Fernando Valley submarket data.
Market data cited above verified as of July 30, 2026.
